The trick to assessing your chances of getting into a
particular program is knowing where you stand with regard to the
various factors that programs consider when making admissions
decisions.
A good way to get a sense of how grad schools perceive you is
to create a fact sheet with your GRE* scores (or projected
scores), overall GPA, and GPA in your major (and minor, if
applicable). Relevant outside activities, work experience,
internships, publications, etc. will also contribute to the
overall strength of your application.
Use A Guidebook
The next step is to find a current source of information about
graduate programs. There are several guides published every year
that provide rankings of schools, as well as data about
acceptance rates and median GPA and GRE scores. In addition, some
rank schools according to their reputations among students,
professors, or prominent people in the field.
Put your GRE score and GPA alongside the median numbers of
schools that interest you. The comparison will give you a rough
idea of where you stand. But remember, GRE and GPA are not the
only criteria for admissions. Many other factors like
recommendations and "intangibles" like activities and relevant
experience can factor prominently into the admissions
equation.
Once you have some idea of where you fall in the applicant
pool, you can begin to make decisions about your application
strategy.
Make Sensible Choices
A sensible application strategy will include schools in three
general categories:
1. Dream schools — places you'd love to attend, but where your
chances of acceptance are up in the air or even unlikely.
2. Good possibilities — programs you'd like to attend and where
your grades and GRE score are close to the median.
3. Safeties — schools where your numbers make acceptance
likely.
Most prospective grad students apply to between four and seven
schools. How many you should actually apply to, though, is best
determined by your strength as an applicant, the difficulty of
admission at schools to where you're applying, and the general
difficulty of getting into any program in your discipline.
If you're applying to five or six grad schools, pick a couple
of dream schools, several in the "likely" category, and one or
two safeties.